Queues + Kenyans

It came to me this week, show a Kenyan a queue and they'll want to get to the front of it. Its like a conditioning that we've all gone through I think.

We have queues everywhere literally, especially in Nairobi; lets list the queues that you'd go through in your average day in the capital of the +254 

• The bathroom
• The iron box
• To exit the estate at rush hour
• To enter the estate in the evening rush hour
• The bank
• The supermarket

If there is a service that a Kenyan needs there is probably a queue.

Lets face it if you don't leave home at a considerably early and insane hour more so with the advent of Kidero's drums (5 AM to start work at 8 AM) your whole commute will be a queue. From the moment you exit the estate to getting a parking slot in town. Jam as you will find out (if you don't already know) can find you inside your estate and escort you slowly all the way to your office. Is it that we are too many people in this city?
I digress though. So basically from the moment you leave the comfy warmth of your bed you most likely face a queue in at some point in your efforts to reach the office. 

Take for example the queue at the bank or at a government office, I challenge you to calculate the amount of time you spend in a queue especially if you live in Nairobi.

What is worse than queues that we face is the behavior of some Kenyans' in those queues, and it is the most annoying thing that you can face in any given day. There types of Kenyans you face in queues:

• Emergency Workers: those who have to get to the front of the line, they overlap shamelessly because as you guessed it - they are on their way to an emergency
• VIP's: they know someone controlling the front of the line so because of their important status they get to skip the line all together
• Needy children: they have no concept of what personal space means. Instead each space they see in front of them is a space they should be in, so close to the person in front of them that they case one shadow. They have no concept of personal space - I strongly suspect that the people in city planning fall in this category
• Touchy People: they love their personal space and are allergic to crowds.

It's like when a Kenyan see's a space in a line, it's in their DNA to fill that space - creating a lifestyle of gridlock

Your thoughts? Comment below

Retreat from Somalia = peace?

“Withdraw KDF from Somalia and we will have peace” this is the message that some leaders and Al-Shabaab have assured Kenyan’s will happen. Actually it’s a variation some Kenyans have added the last part “we will have peace”, Al-Shabaab tell us that we withdraw and they will still continue to attack until all the wrongs perpetuated by non-Muslims on Muslims are avenged (the list of wrongs is long detailed yet vague).

There are many who while not being part of the withdrawal camp do believe that withdrawal is for the best at the very least to prevent the generals continuing to line their pockets with the benefits of Kismayu’s varied exports. Which is happening because the trade in Kismayu continues and whether AMISOM (KDF) exacts a lower tax than Al-Shaabab (which is quite likely given the quiet in that sector) & is a matter of some debate; this incidentally I believe is one of the main reasons for Al-Shabaab’s campaign of terror in Kenya. Kismayu was a major source of revenue for the group because on top of the chance to write the injustice of historical wrongs Al-Shabaab & their jihad does pay well from the accounts of the family members of their adherents, in fact many families comment on how their members join because of joblessness.

To return the main reason for the article will a withdrawal lead to peace?  That peace is possible but that depends on how the withdrawal is accomplished. I shall explain in two steps below:

Withdraw today: this will not guarantee peace, it will embolden Al-Shabaab shift the emputus from the Somali National government as well as the regional authorities that

have sprung up and give them validity and if they can turn that validity into territorial gains they would in short order be back in control of Somalia and then we will have no peace. They will have learned from their first encounter with AMISOM and they would prepare extremely well for the next encounter which will as sure as the dawn come.

If Al-Shaabab controls Somalia the attacks in Kenya and across the region will not stop, with the platform that controlling a country would provide them their next campaign would not be insurgent attacks it may be a campaign of insurgent attacks as well as frontal ones as conducted by Boko Haraam in Nigeria. None of us want that for East Africa – except Al-Shabaab and their adherents.

Withdraw with Goals: our presence in Somalia cannot be open ended, it must be to achieve a specific objective and that objective is to restore a stable government for the people of Somalia that is a participating member of the region taking its rightful place in the development of the people of East Africa.  This must be the ultimate goal of the AMISOM mission.

This AMISOM mission must have a clearly defined timetable of objectives to be achieved (assigned to a time frame where possible) with the people of Somalia having their rightful part to play (they have to have a key stake in the rebuilding of their nation – which it ultimately is). Defeating Al-Shabaab isn't just about militarily defeating them it’s also about building a culture that will resist their attempt to create a narrative of hate and violence.

So in summary there will be peace in Somalia, Kenya and East Africa from the threat of Islamic Jihad when AMISOM withdraws from Somalia – the right way having rebuilt a stable society.

Should we withdraw tomorrow – there will be no peace

Our leaders: They Can't or They Won't

After the April 2^nd Garissa University attack and the postmortem is continuing in all it’s heart wrenching goriness. I can only imagine what the families of the victims including those who are still missing loved ones must be going through.

As details emerge of what went down on the days leading to the attack as well as on the material day itself. A litany of mistakes, gaffes, incompetence and downright treachery by the different people who played a part (willingly or not) in the horror that was meted out on the Kenyans’ who lost their lives at Garissa University.

If I was to write about all the errors they would fill a book. From the security personnel who were given intelligence about the attacks, to the Kenyans who provided for the attackers (with intelligence, logistics, sanctuary and supplies in the lead up to the attack) to the security services who didn't coordinate their response to the attacks (with no coordination so that the actual rescue began at 5 pm in the evening) when the attackers ammunition was almost exhausted and they had killed the majority of their victims.

What really irks me though is looking at the decision makers who are charged with our safety I have to ask myself –if they care for ordinary Kenyans. Because  looking at how our leaders react (throughout the entire levels of leadership)  to the challenges we face in security can only  be explained in one of two ways from the way I see it and neither way bodes well for the future of this country.

Il-equipped: we have equipment to secure and build this country however the application of those tools by individuals at decision making levels exhibits a lack of knowledge despite all their training on how to apply those tools – there seems to be an inflexibility to adapt to situations that require a flexible response to counter them. Taking the issue that is most discussed with respect to Garissa – dispatching of the Recce team to Garissa. 

The attacks began between 0500 – 0600hrs, the commandant of the GSU was on his way to Turkwel that morning to reopen a road that had been blocked by locals. The Recce team was ready to leave for Garissa by 0800hrs. At that time one of the Cessna 208B’s that would have been used by the team was on its way on a training/family flight to Mombasa.

At that point the decision makers would, should have done two things reason would dictate:

Firstly: turn back the 208B to Nairobi, immediately make sure that they requisition whatever air resources would be necessary to take the entire team to Garissa immediately (there are a operators of Dash 8 aircraft at Wilson – the very same ones used to evacuate the wounded; which combined with the 208B that was still at Wilson would have been enough to get the team to Garissa in at most 2 hours.

Secondly: Immediately dispatched the Recce team to Wilson airport – it begs belief that they took two hours in Nairobi traffic – they should have been driven on the wrong side of the road on pavements, dammit through gardens and back yards to get to Wilson.

They should have been at Wilson by 0900hrs to be dispatched by 0930hrs at the latest. While this was happening the person in charge of the Recce team should have been in touch with the security decision makers in Garissa to get the Recce team what they needed to create a plan of attack on the way to Garissa. This would be plans of the buildings (floors, rooms entrances, emergency exits), the layout of the surrounding area (observation points, lines of sight, high grounds and roads) as well as real time intelligence on where the attackers were holed up. The campus was surrounded by security personnel from different commands – the information was readily obtainable from the county offices as well as officers on the ground. This plan is a simple plan it’s not rocket science and anyone who has been to command school, management school anyone making decisions for a nation should have thought of something along these lines.

How is it that the press got to Garissa before the Recce squad and it can’t be money because the government surely has enough of that, so then we have a tool (Recce) that can adopt to complex situations fluidly but a command and control structure that cannot adapt itself to wield the tool in fluid situations. Begging the question, are these, our leaders ill-equipped to adapt to complex security situations. This option assumes that our leaders do earnestly care about our nation’s security but are out of their depth in the face of the current challenges we are facing as a nation – to remedy this we need to equip our leaders better to give them the skills they need to apply the tools of our safety.

Competent but don’t care: which is the worse sin because it would mean that the people in charge with the leadership are first of all don’t care about what they are in those positions to do, their focus is on other things and so instead of being motivated to do the best job they can at all times, which would mean that on their order of priorities keeping the peace is quite low, the peace exists to enable our leaders to continue their most important interests while enjoying the benefits of leadership.

Leadership at all levels whose motivation isn't the mantle of their leadership but something else (whatever that may be) then the people who they lead are worse off. This kind of leadership is reactionary, they don’t seek to adapt and anticipate or improve responses beyond what is necessary to keep their leadership intact. As an author in the Daily Nation said our security leadership while presiding over an archaic inflexible security apparatus run thriving private entities with truly Buffetesque flair.

For your review check out this article in the Daily Nation from April 14th 2015

Could that explain why the most the reactions in the wake of the attack are knee jerk reactions that in the short term will be seen to be doing something while in the long run may not be for the benefit of the people of this nation. As always let’s look at an example:

Security Crackdown: in the wake of the attack the government machinery has swung into gear freezing accounts, blacklisting individuals, closing businesses, demanding the closure of the world’s largest refugee camp (in direct contradiction of international conventions) and building what would be Kenya’s longest wall. These activities paint a worrying picture for me. The financial measures: how long has the government had this list? Unless it’s a PR list – equally as bad isn't it?

Then lets discuss the wall, 700 kilometers long in all its anticipated glory, is that the best use of our resources? Is it guaranteed to improve the safety of this nation? Will that wall keep out of this nation the habits that are killing us? Or are those habits already firmly entrenched within our borders the antithesis of the plenty that should be found in our borders.

Closing of Dadaab – the largest refugee camp on the planet, how much will it cost?

To begin with being that international refugee law doesn't confine refugees to camps and that our government hasn't allocated an adequate budget to the Department of Refugee affairs – what exactly will this accomplish?

How are we sending people back who can’t properly identify or of whom have no exhaustive database of origins, do we see that happening? Visit the Department of Refugee Affairs and find out for yourself.

We all know that the government won’t do a proper job in any of the initiatives taken by the government, none of them will last beyond the first phase and will leave in us (Kenyans) a bitter taste, fear and a suspicion of Somalis’ - it's already happening just talk to your neighbor. 

What I fear this may entrench is a mindset of us vs them – further dividing this nation, wasting our resources and killing us.

These actions then are populist, designed to show us in a very simplistic way that our leaders believe will convince us that they do care about us and that the attacks are not events that distract them from their primary agenda (enjoying the benefits of leadership and furthering their personal enterprise) but serious threats to us the people they care about and who their prime objective is to serve and lead.

Soon everything will return to normal, there will be no accountability for our leaders everything will return to normal and all of us (leaders and the led) will return to our primary objectives – the advancement of our individual enterprise by all at our disposal to the detriment of  all else.

So then you tell me are our leaders ill-equipped or do they just not care about us enough and chose to direct energies to personal advancement with the tools of their office and treat the objectives of leadership as secondary (stability to ensure longevity in office) and ultimately that fault is ours as the fabric of society.

To paraphrase a famous tweet,

“individualism has killed football, cricket and now it’s killing us”

What is the endgame?

It’s April 3^rd 2015 and our nation is reeling once again from a gruesome attack. On April 2^nd gunmen attacked the Graissa University College and as of today at least 147 people have lost their lives in addition to the perpetrators or terrorists or murderers.

The details emerging of the siege at the university are horrible, they cannot be recounted and they are all over the internet. More and more details are emerging and with time, the more detailed and horrible they become.
The murderers targeted an early morning Christian Union prayer meeting; they knew exactly where the students were and they went about their abhorrent mission according to eye witness accounts almost gleefully taunting victims, making them call their parents, referencing Easter – happily executing their evil mission. In some cases the victims called out to Jesus to save them and were immediately shot dead and according to first responders they were mostly shot in the back of the head while lying on the floor.
In my mind it is crystal clear those murderers are having a reckoning with the God of the followers who they killed with ruthless abandon on April 3^rd 2015. I stake my life on the certainty that it isn't a joyful reckoning.
The shock of the attack perpetuated on my country men and women follows a similar pattern to previous attacks carried out against Kenyans in the last five years.
However the attacks and the pattern of the attacks isn't unique to Kenya, East Africa or Africa for that matter. This pattern of attacks where the victims are unprepared noncombatant’s, targeted in places of education, worship or shopping isn't unique to Kenya.
These attacks depending on where they are carried out in the world target Christian’s, Muslims, Hindu’s, atheists or members of other faiths. Unfortunately and I’m not profiling here the perpetrators claiming (correctly or not) to be true Muslims, labelled Islamic radicals or terrorist (depending on who is describing them) are by and large claiming to act in the name of Islam.
The narrative of the ideologies behind the attacks changes based on which region of the world the attack is carried out in. I will illustrate:

1. East Africa: unbelievers attacking Muslim lands or dispossessing Muslim are of their lands and as such are legitimate targets for the revenge being carried out by the attackers who also are on a crusade to bring the law of the Quran back to those wrongfully dispossessed Muslim lands
2. West Africa: unbelievers who have perpetuated injustices against Muslims & Islam and the backup reason of establishing the rule of Islamic law in the areas that “belong” to Islam
3. North Africa: Muslims against Muslims based on tribal allegiance
4. Middle East: that’s where it becomes more complicated but the lines are still the same. It’s  Muslim against Muslim based on the version of their religion (Sunni vs Shia) IS against the Iraqi government or IS against Yazidi Christians in that instance the narrative reverts to version 1, 2 or 3

I’m inclined to see a pattern here of violence always against others with the justification for violence changing based on the theater of application with the only constant being violence.
This in turn leads to the question at least from where I’m sitting, what is the ultimate goal of these different movements in different parts of the world but executing a similar campaign of violence.
Everything has a reason and an objective – so what is the objective of these movements? Will they stop when they conquer their current adversaries? Is it simplistic to believe that they will seize when the current objective is achieved? Will Al-Shabaab seize their campaign against Kenya when as they demand Kenya withdraws her troops & for the Kenyan radicals returns “Muslim lands” to Muslims?
I don’t think that will happen, there will always be a new enemy, a new cause for the “faithful” to take up arms against the “infidel” and the violence will not stop even when the objectives that are fueling the violence are achieved.
In the event that this theory is correct then that means as the violence continues, the more territory and people that the perpetrators take over the greater their capacity of committing violence will become – which brings us back to Al-Shabaab who on Saturday April 4^th promised to wage a long bloody war against the population of Kenya. 

Their attacks in Kenya are out of a sense of desperation a campaign to regain lost territory and an economic base to wage its campaign of violence. It’s a battle born out of desperation for relevance.
Without the territory that they have lost in Somalia they continue to struggle for economic and cultural relevance in their homeland. Without the territory they have lost they will not have an economic base as well as a base of followers (plus access to the population’s contacts in foreign countries – useful when sending foreign fighters to those nations)
In conclusion – the campaign of violence seems unlikely to end:  irrespective of the objectives achieved by the antagonists.

So in that context if the main proponents in each of the four regions of the world where these religious conflicts are being waged achieve their stated short term objectives it will lead to a temporary lull in the overall campaign followed by a period of consolidation of those players into bigger regional movements or supremacy conflicts from which a stronger aggressor will emerge to initiate more campaigns of violence.
To answer the question the end game is violence, followed by conquest, consolidation, expansion followed by more violence and in the unlikely event that global domination is achieved and there is no more resistance – there will still be violence – because this movement cannot exist without violence.
An aside is as long as people refuse to bow to this ideology then there will be violence, attacks, people will get hurt and there will be war and days like April 2^nd 2015 will continue sadly to happen. 

For those who ascribe to their ideology they seem to have committed to either convert their opponents, kill them or be killed. 

What will the rest of us choose..