Retreat from Somalia = peace?

“Withdraw KDF from Somalia and we will have peace” this is the message that some leaders and Al-Shabaab have assured Kenyan’s will happen. Actually it’s a variation some Kenyans have added the last part “we will have peace”, Al-Shabaab tell us that we withdraw and they will still continue to attack until all the wrongs perpetuated by non-Muslims on Muslims are avenged (the list of wrongs is long detailed yet vague).

There are many who while not being part of the withdrawal camp do believe that withdrawal is for the best at the very least to prevent the generals continuing to line their pockets with the benefits of Kismayu’s varied exports. Which is happening because the trade in Kismayu continues and whether AMISOM (KDF) exacts a lower tax than Al-Shaabab (which is quite likely given the quiet in that sector) & is a matter of some debate; this incidentally I believe is one of the main reasons for Al-Shabaab’s campaign of terror in Kenya. Kismayu was a major source of revenue for the group because on top of the chance to write the injustice of historical wrongs Al-Shabaab & their jihad does pay well from the accounts of the family members of their adherents, in fact many families comment on how their members join because of joblessness.

To return the main reason for the article will a withdrawal lead to peace?  That peace is possible but that depends on how the withdrawal is accomplished. I shall explain in two steps below:

Withdraw today: this will not guarantee peace, it will embolden Al-Shabaab shift the emputus from the Somali National government as well as the regional authorities that

have sprung up and give them validity and if they can turn that validity into territorial gains they would in short order be back in control of Somalia and then we will have no peace. They will have learned from their first encounter with AMISOM and they would prepare extremely well for the next encounter which will as sure as the dawn come.

If Al-Shaabab controls Somalia the attacks in Kenya and across the region will not stop, with the platform that controlling a country would provide them their next campaign would not be insurgent attacks it may be a campaign of insurgent attacks as well as frontal ones as conducted by Boko Haraam in Nigeria. None of us want that for East Africa – except Al-Shabaab and their adherents.

Withdraw with Goals: our presence in Somalia cannot be open ended, it must be to achieve a specific objective and that objective is to restore a stable government for the people of Somalia that is a participating member of the region taking its rightful place in the development of the people of East Africa.  This must be the ultimate goal of the AMISOM mission.

This AMISOM mission must have a clearly defined timetable of objectives to be achieved (assigned to a time frame where possible) with the people of Somalia having their rightful part to play (they have to have a key stake in the rebuilding of their nation – which it ultimately is). Defeating Al-Shabaab isn't just about militarily defeating them it’s also about building a culture that will resist their attempt to create a narrative of hate and violence.

So in summary there will be peace in Somalia, Kenya and East Africa from the threat of Islamic Jihad when AMISOM withdraws from Somalia – the right way having rebuilt a stable society.

Should we withdraw tomorrow – there will be no peace