The Base In Gedo, Somalia - Part Two

Studying these images and going through the information available, one could write a book and the story of what happened must be told. It's not enough to exact vengeance on the perpetrators of these attacks but our military must learn from what happened and we as a people must learn from what happened. 

Let not those who lost their lives in those attacks and the aftermath (from both sides) not have lost their lives in vain. 

There's another piece of information that contributes to the evidence that this camp is a place that may have been over run in the El Adde Attacks. 

Some Maths: In various news stories we've be told that when air support ( fast jet's)  was dispatched from Nanyuki it arrived on station over El Adde in 30 - 40 minutes. That's an interesting time frame and allow me to explain why.

The current main fighter of our erstwhile air force is the F-5E Tiger II,  which has a combat radius of 1039 kms. Combat radius is the distance a plane can fly from it's base accomplish an objective and return to base before tanks run dry plus minimums. Minimums is the amount of extra fuel a pilot needs to arrive over their destination with in case of any issues over the landing site. 

The camp is exactly 550kms from Nanyuki which means that an F-5 would reach Nanyuki in just under 30 minutes and be able to loiter on station for 30+  minutes before having to return to Nanyuki before it's tanks ran dry. 

With an available carrying capacity (payload) of 3.1 tonnes of weapons or extra fuel (extending the range) which if it was all used for weapons in air to ground mode (as I suspect happens in most missions in Somalia) would make for a long day for the individuals on the receiving end of those weapons. 
 Moving forward the next available images we have a date of 12/22/2014 - these are the last available images online for this area. There are no images for 2015 & 2016.

Image 7

Image 7: The encampment still exists two years later with more buildings and no brand new earth works as seen in 2012.

You will notice that the area isn't as dry as  it was when the last pictures were taken and a new encampment has grown and become attached to the main encampment.

Going clockwise around the image you will notice the following:

Smaller Encampment: This smaller encampment has grown around the main route into and out of the camp and is directly South of the encampment we're focusing on (in the direction of the town)

Open Space: an open slightly slopped area which could be used for training or exercise

Partial Walls:  there are a number of partial walls and trenches to the left side of the images.
To the left of the image is also where you can see the remains of the previous perimeter wall or fence.

You'll notice that the white rectangles in the outer oval have the long side facing the perimeter this would allow two adjacent positions to have overlapping fields of fire - answering the question raised in my previous article. Yes they did have positions with overlapping fields of fire.

The camp has an sense of permanence to it as compared to the 2012 images.

The perimeter has been expanded compared to the 2012 and there is a open area between the perimeter and the first ring of buildings and positions.

Lets focus on four different areas based on the 2014 images.

Image 8

Image 8 a full image of of the entire encampment zoomed in with areas of interest highlighted.

Image A

In  this image we zoom in to the main route into and out of the encampment. You can see that there are two walls both of them unmanned in this image.

The first wall is the green fence which encircles the encampment and the second is narrower& defined by it's shadow it's almost the same color as the earth.

It's distinct shadow though does give an indication of it's height.

It's important to note that there don't seem to be any actual gates or sentry positions around either of these fences. 

There are no shadows in the road to indicate barriers or a gate structure. There is a small shadow to the left just after the second wall which may be a sentry box. There are no obvious weapon positions around the gate although to of the structures at the bottom of the image could be weapon positions covering the gate.
In this encampment the gate structure isn't a secure space and neither is the one in the small encampment. Any attackers using VBIED's would be able to drive at speed into different sectors of the encampment.

In briefings after the attack we've been told how ALS was able to drive at least 5 different vehicles including VBIED's into the El-Adde encampment. 

A gate entrance like this could explain how that happened.

 

Image B

Image C

Image B: you can see what seems to be artillery positions ( the ovals that look like they have watch hands inside them and one opening) these are field artillery pieces surrounded by an earth embankment - Crew Served Weapon (CSW) positions, I won't speculate on the caliber of these weapons. However in this image there are two of them. There is also what appears to be a vehicle parked near the lower CWS position.

There are  at least four positions of the type in this image in various positions of this type around the camp which means that this encampment artillery fire support for itself and nearby military patrols (they point to the east and south east). It also means these weapons would be ranged (they would have calibrated these weapons to know what settings to choose to fire at targets 1km away or 10kms away). Which answers the question I raised on Mortar Batteries.

If this was the camp that was attacked and the attackers came through the smaller SNA camp and the defenders didn't know that the camp had been abandoned, they wouldn't have been able to use the weapons to fire at the direction the attackers were coming from. I raise this question because they should have been able to fire illumination rounds over the SNA camp and the road from the town and then plaster the approaches to the camp with rounds as fast as they could fire.

Image C: you can see several buildings with white roofs surrounded entrenched in the earth, it's possible that the walls of these buildings could have been built using Hesco Bastions (see  El-Adde you won't forget that name in this lifetime) which means that the encampment inhabitants would have shelter from VBIED's unless it was parked right next to a building.

This is good, it shows the inhabitants knew how to fortify buildings.

Conclusion: from the images so far, we can see that the camp's defenses are heavier on the left side of the encampment - the eastern side. There are more walls and less vegetation compared to the right side of the encampment - the western side (it has less barriers and more vegetation). It may have been this is the area the enemy attacked from often.

The cardinal rule though, each side should have been as protected just as the Eastern side was. If encampment was attacked from the eastern side as a decoy and then the main attack came from the western side at dawn or dusk, it would be a confusing situation for the defenders.

Image D

Image D lets look at the perimeter's. You'll see the outer perimeter at the bottom of the image (the green wavy line) it should have been made of thorn bush.

Next going upwards on the image we have the faint green line with a tree in it - this is the old perimeter from 2012, they moved the perimeter outwards. This area that we're in is called a free fire zone and should be absolutely vegetation fee to enable the defenders to shoot anything that crosses the perimeter.
Next we have what seems like a trench or temporary wall.

Lastly the final perimeter before you enter the encampment proper.

On average the distance between the inner barrier and the outer barrier ranges between 75 meters in the North and 90 - 99 meters in the East, South and West - this is good.

The only issue I have with this free fire zone is that isn't absolutely vegetation free. It's also impossible to tell if it's mined from these images. As well I feel the area outside the outermost barrier should have been defoliated for at least 50 meters. These imaged from 2014 do suggest a level of complacency on the part of the base defenders - it could be 15% complacency.

That 15% could be what get you killed when you face your adversary in conflict.

Conclusion
The defense features of this encampment aren't complete (to my liking) but it's not defenseless either. An encampment such as this wouldn't fall to attackers without any air support or artillery easily. It would be a tough nut to crack but still it would crack with the following:

1. Surveillance: the attackers would need to have extensive surveillance of this encampment to determine it's weak points
2. Access: the attackers would need access to the smaller encampment as a mini staging area to enable them to attack the larger encampment at speed and in numbers and to prevent the defenders from using artillery to impede their progress.
3. Timing:  there's a reason ALS attacks bases at dawn (Burundi, Uganda & now Kenya) dawn and dusk are the times of shadows, it can be hard to tell what is moving and not moving. This is why dawn and dusk in a base in an active war zone is the time to stand post - this means every one on base is armed and in body armor facing the fences watching everything and with flood lights on. This time normally lasts for around 30 - 45 minutes. In Africa as we know our sunrise and sunsets are quite fast. If the attacks began before 0530hrs then the defenders (with lights, night vision capability, artillery & the knowledge of the terrain) would have an advantage against an enemy with VBIED's, small & medium arms. 
4. Numbers: the attackers would have to commit a very large fighting force to overwhelm a encampment such as this and would face significant casualties no matter what they may claim afterwards. 

Number 1 & 2 imply some form of cooperation from the locals around the encampment - it wouldn't be possible otherwise. The local populace is implicated if this encampment fell.

If this is the El-Adde Base of KDF there are some things I can and can't conclude - if it was to be attacked at the time these satellite images were taken.

First - what I can't conclude

1. I can't tell you if the defenders had night vision capability
2. If night patrols were conducted from this encampment
3. I can't tell you if they were standing post or about to stand post
4. The competency & experience of the individuals at this outpost

What I can conclude

1. The defenses aren't all encompassing. There are glaring weaknesses that an enemy could exploit and use to their advantage in the right conditions
2. This encampment is vulnerable through complacency in construction
3. Step 1- 3 above would make a difference - a significant one
4. This encampment has at least 200+ inhabitants 
5. This Base would fall if it was attacked at the time these images were taken

The last piece in this series is the El-Adde my post script.

At the very least should this turn out not to be an AMISOM KDF outpost then it's defenses could do with a lot of shoring up. Should it be an ALS encampment..... I won't take that thought to completion. 

The Base In Gedo, Somalia - Part One

I set out to followup on the two articles I'd written after the attack on KDF in El-Adde, Gedo, Somalia.

Initially I''d hoped that with time the GOK would shed light on what happened, so there wouldn't need to be endless speculation on what happened as is wont to happen online where #KOT are involved.

I've been extremely curious to find out how ALS got the better of KDF given everything that's happened in Somalia since 2011.

I wrote two articles El Adde a name that will live in infamy & El Adde you won't forget that name in this lifetime in the latter article I raised a few questions about

1. Base Construction
2. Supplies
3. Combat Support 
4. Crisis Management

Based on information available freely and widely on the internet and correlating that with news articles on the attack I'm following up on Base Construction. 

I believe I did find the base in that may have been attacked by ALS in El Adde and based on what I raised in my second El Adde article I found the answer to some of the questions I raised.
.
If this isn't the El Adde base, it's still a military encampment and it's construction does raise some questions. 

Sources: Based on online articles including ones from The Daily Nation, The Standard and The Star, rescue missions were mounted from El Wak & Damasa in Kenya in response to the attack and surviving soldiers took refuge in a nearby town.
The rescue columns encountered IED's on the road between El Wak and the camp slowing them down. Some soldiers were rescued near the border, others were killed together with a family that sheltered them in the town near the base that was attacked.

With time some things about the attack have become clearer and some things still remain for now unknown.

Image 1

Image 1: Area of Interest:  Using Google Maps I found El Wak in Kenya and followed  the main route into Somalia around 45 kms into Somalia I cam to the first town after Bur Ache about 50 kms down the road.

Searching outward from the town I found just north of the town at a distance of 0.97 kms what can be called an organized encampment

Image 2

Image 2 Encampment: This encampment is oval and seems to have organized defense's as we'll see later in this series.

Taking everything into account I examined this discovery further.

It's important to note that with Google Resources you're able to zoom back & forth through the image catalog over time and that's what I did.



The encampment has multiple rings of excavations and a full enclosure, there's one way into an out of the camp. It looks like a fortified military installation.

Image 3

The images for this specific area are from between 2012 and 2014.

Image 3 You can clearly see the road from the town to the encampment.

Image 4: The latest image shows two circular encampments a smaller one and the larger more organized one.

News articles have clearly stated that the El Adde KDF encampment is accessed through a SNA encampment as is the case in Image 4. The only access road to the larger encampment is through the smaller encampment.

Image 4

Historical Images
Going back to the earliest images of the area Image 5 & Image 6  which were taken on 03/12/2012 we notice a few things.

Image 5

Image 5: 03/12/2012 notice the general dryness of the are represented by the white and gray colors which is dry vegetation. The color of the earth where it's visible is pale orange. 

Inside the enclosure which seems to made of vegetation of some kind, it's lighter than the trees (meaning dryer) but darker than the grass. This means in height it'd be shorter than the trees but higher than the grass. 

Going back to the color of the earth on the you'll notice within the encampment that there are oval rings of excavations - a hole surrounded be dark red earth. You'll notice the ones to the south (nearer the town) are drier (older) and the ones to the north of the encampment are darker meaning the earth in those excavations is fresh compared to the ones in the south.  In addition the excavations in the outside circles are drier than the ones in the inner circle. 

My conclusions on the excavations are that they are Defensive Fighting Positions, Crew Served Weapon Positions and earth works raised around buildings to protect them from incoming fire. 

It's also important to note the entrance to the south towards the direction of the town and there are some old structures which don't have earth works around them. 

In addition it's important to note that the perimeter fence has some gaps in it which are clearly foot paths in and out of the compound and in some areas these paths have been blocked with slightly darker (fresher) vegetation. 

Image 6

Image 6: shows the concentric rings of excavated positions as well as the openings in the perimeter fence. 

Looking at these the oldest images, I believe there is clear evidence of a new and expanding military encampment in 2012. 

I found more images from 2014 which will be in Part Two...... 

Where are the watchmen?

Looking around at our society, the context our time I lose sleep. Sleep flees when you see what is

going on around this nation and compare it with our attitude as a society.

This attitude I believe is defined by what we focus on, our list of national priorities you'd say.

We're embroiled in a multi dimensional conflict for the identity of this nation, if you look back at the crisis points we've been through over the last five to seven years - a worrying trend emerges.

A lot of Kenyan's have been lost in a range of terror related incidents and our adversity is hate filled and motivated to wipe us out. They classify us homogeneously and rejoice at each life they snuff out.

This is serious, looking at the media that our foes publish on the internet you get hit with a sense of discouragement and a temptation to give in to the same doctrine of hate, to retreat behind stereotypes and close the ranks, make it an us versus them affair. It doesn't work that way..... thankfully

The conflicts of our time as I've alluded to in my post What is the end game? the wave of hate across the world isn't aimless and isolated pockets of violence. It's targeted conflict and while the actors may seem separate over time they will continue to coalesce into a single entity with a specific goal.

This isn't a surprise, it's been happening over the last four years especially with the rise of ISIS, the names change the objectives remain the same - let's not lose sight of that.

With all these conflicts, within our borders, on the other side of our borders, clear across the continent and on the other side of the world, take a look at our society at our nation - do we know what times we live in?

Who's pricking our collective conscience, who's opening our eyes to the threats that we face, who's making sure that those who stand in harms way have the best of our resources to keep us safe.

Who's driving the discourse of what it means to be Kenyan, who's leading the way in bringing out the best in us as a people which is the only way to truly win this conflict of our time?

Who's standing in our town halls and social halls (which we don't have) leading the discourse on the bigger picture for our country?

Those are our watchmen, where are they?  ...........

We obsess about money for our county, jobs for our people and our man winning the seat, followed by his man and then the other man.

Our leaders are exposed time and again for stealing money that should be used for making a difference and they go to court and nothing happens and still the money keeps getting stolen.

Each time this happens we get more jaded as nation, we turn to money, the next issue to hold our attention, we retreat behind our tribal, social, economic and financial identities.....

Yet all around us the conflicts continue, drawing closer each day......

Each time there has been a tragedy the things that we lose ourselves in have not saved us.... our tribal, social, economic and financial identities did they make a difference in the lives of those we lost?

Yet we still continue to put our trust and hope in them....

Where are the watchmen?